American Geophysical Union 2019: Key Occasions From the Earth Institute
Here’s a chronological information for journalists to key talks and different occasions on the Dec. 9-13 American Geophysical Union assembly in San Francisco, from Columbia College’s Earth Institute. Until in any other case famous, scientists are at our Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Reporters might contact scientists immediately. Extra data: science information editor Kevin Krajick, kkrajick@ei.columbia.edu 917-361-7766.
Solely 12 Years to Repair Local weather? Kate Marvel, Goddard Institute for House Research
Earth is doomed! Humanity will go extinct! In a wide-ranging speak, local weather scientist and author Marvel says there isn’t a scientific foundation for such claims, and that such assertions are unproductive. However, she warns, the local weather system could also be extra precariously balanced than beforehand thought, with rising proof that greenhouse gases are driving sea stage rise and the frequency and severity of utmost climate in actual time. A clearer understanding of what’s taking place can function a motivating precept for lowering emissions, she argues.
Monday Dec. 9, 1:40-Three:40pm, Moscone South eLightning Theater 1 PA13A-07
Predicting Local weather Migrations to the U.S. and Different Nations
Alex De Sherbinin, Heart for Worldwide Earth Science Info Community Diego Pons, Worldwide Analysis Institute for Local weather and Society Geographer De Sherbinin discusses a latest World Financial institution report predicting tons of of hundreds of thousands of migrants fleeing particular components of Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia throughout coming a long time—the primary try and mannequin climate-related human actions over such extensive areas. Pons discusses social and financial stressors which have mixed with drought to drive numerous individuals northward from Guatemala towards the U.S. border, beginning in 2018; he additionally assesses the probabilities for predicting future migrations.
De Sherbinin: Monday Dec. 9, Eight:00-Eight:15am, Moscone West 2020, L2 GC11A-01
Pons: Monday Dec. 9, 1:40-6:00pm, Moscone South Poster Corridor GC13E-1213
World Bank Climate Migration Report
Crusing Rocks, Slime and Historical Mammals Paul Olsen
“Crusing stones”—boulders that mysteriously traverse desert panorama, leaving tracks—are recognized from Demise Valley and a handful of different areas. The inventory rationalization: robust winds propel them throughout temporary deep freezes that create a slick floor. Paleontologist Olsen appears to be like at a startling new instance of such a observe, contained in an already well-known 200-million-year-old piece of Connecticut sandstone. Collected within the 1800s, it accommodates a dinosaur footprint. Olsen has now additionally recognized the tracks of a small hopping mammal that got here alongside first, and the observe of a crusing rock, which the dinosaur apparently stepped in. The crusing rock’s approach might have been smoothed, and the animal tracks preserved, all by the identical factor: a layer of microbial slime. Olsen will take part in a press convention that includes a seize bag of different bizarre geological discoveries.
Press Convention: Monday Dec. 9, Three:30pm, Press Convention Room
Poster: Tuesday Dec. 10, 1:40-6:00pm, Moscone South Poster Corridor EP23C-2277
The 1930s Mud Bowl and the Corn Belt’s Future Mingfang Ting, Michael Puma, Heart for Local weather Techniques Analysis
Ting initiatives that warming temperatures will result in decreased precipitation plus elevated evaporation of soil moisture within the U.S. Midwest corn belt—a climatic double whammy. A lot of the precipitation that beforehand reached this area will as a substitute be exported northward to the presently drier Nice Plains, he says. In a associated research, Puma initiatives that hotter temperatures will improve the probability of occasions much like the 1930s Mud Bowl—an occasion briefly mirrored within the highly effective 2012-13 U.S. drought. He initiatives that crop losses may enormously exceed 2012-13, and that shocks may cascade by means of the world meals system.
Puma: Monday Dec. 9, 1:40pm-6:00pm, Moscone South Poster Corridor GC13G-1232
Ting: Tuesday Dec. 10, 5:00-5:15pm, Moscone West 3002-L3 A24J-05
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Reunion Celebration
Historically on Tuesday evening at AGU, employees and alumni of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory from world wide collect for a reunion. Journalists protecting AGU are welcome—an incredible likelihood to make contacts, hear the excitement about new work, and have enjoyable.
Tuesday Dec. 10, 6:30-Eight:30pm, Marriott Union Sq., 480 Sutter St.
Extraterrestrial Influence Preserved Deep in Ice? Dallas Abbott
In 535-536 AD, and once more a number of years later, the world underwent a quick however intense cooling and dimming of the solar, together with famines, civil upheavals and unexplained astronomical phenomena. The episodes are generally attributed to main volcanic eruptions, however Abbott proposes one other risk: an extraterrestrial influence. Inside Greenland’s GISP2 ice core, she has detected proof of marine microfossils that apparently had been ejected into the environment and settled on the ice throughout these years. The invention provides to earlier proof she has discovered of probably impact-related spherules within the ice from this identical time.
Wednesday Dec. 11, Eight:00am-12:20pm, Moscone South Poster Corridor V31C-0127
Microplastics in Snow: Citizen Scientists Examine Laurel Zaima
Microplastics have turn into ubiquitous in rivers, oceans and different environments. It seems they’re additionally within the air, and could also be transported to land by snow. This venture will make use of volunteers of all ages to gather, study and report snow-deposited microplastics close to their houses, and to ship samples for lab evaluation. The venture will begin in New York state, however is anticipated to broaden. It’s an outgrowth of the X-Snow Challenge, which has recruited volunteers to review how local weather could also be affecting the distribution of snowfall itself, and the buildings of particular person snowflakes.
Wednesday Dec. 11, 1:40-6:00pm, Moscone South Poster Corridor ED33B-1015
X-Snow website | Microplastics in Arctic snow
Implications of Greenland’s Final Soften Season Marco Tedesco, Shujie Wang
Tedesco explores how distinctive melting in Greenland this summer time might have wrought modifications within the floor construction of the ice sheet that may set the stage for future accelerated melting. Amongst different issues, he says that this summer time’s occasions have in all probability altered drainage programs inside the ice and left massive areas of floor naked of reflective snow cowl. Wang describes advances in satellite tv for pc imagery evaluation which can be enabling scientists to map the speedy development of algae over extensive areas, and quantify how they’re lowering the reflectivity of the ice.
Tedesco: Wednesday Dec. 11, 1:40-1:55pm, Moscone West 2008, L2 C33A-01
Wang: Wednesday Dec. 11, 5:30-5:45pm, Moscone West, 2008, L2 C34A-07
Story, video on Tedesco’s work on the Greenland ice
California’s Climate Whiplash: The Local weather Connection
Park Williams, Jonathan Nichols
California has not too long ago veered 12 months to 12 months from very moist to very dry, but it surely has not been clear whether or not that is a part of a brand new sample attributable to warming local weather. Two new research counsel that it’s. In a tree-ring reconstruction going again to 800 AD, Park Williams exhibits that cold-season precipitation within the Sierra Nevada has undergone more and more excessive and frequent swings, with most of each the wettest and driest years occurring since 2000. Individually, Nichols and colleagues have analyzed 130,00zero years of pollen in ocean sediments. They discover a related sample of more and more excessive seasonal swings going down in northern California. Nichols: Wednesday Dec. 11, Eight:00am-12:20pm, Moscone South Poster Corridor PP31D-1658
Williams: Thursday Dec. 12, 10:50-11:05am, Moscone West, 2004, L2 PP42B-03
A New Consensus (and Warning) on Previous CO2 Bärbel Hönisch
Reconstructions of previous CO2 ranges are wanted to venture the consequences of present human emissions, however some earlier estimates at the moment are now not thought of sound, due to subsequent discoveries about the right way to interpret information. For the previous three years, Hönisch has spearheaded a worldwide community of paleo-CO2 researchers from some 50 establishments to assemble a complete new consensus on CO2 over the previous 65 million years, and their correlations with local weather swings. At AGU, they may launch an internet site that makes the timeline and information simply viewable for public, policymakers and scientists. Backside line: Some previous very heat instances seem linked to a lot smaller will increase in CO2 than beforehand thought.
Thursday, Dec. 12, 11:20-11:35am, Moscone West 2002-L2 PP42A-05
Paleo-CO2 website (Web site will go stay throughout AGU)
Connecting the Science of Cryosphere and Coastlines Robin Bell
AGU president Bell will talk about the necessity for a convergent workforce of bodily and social scientists, engineers and policymakers to grasp and plan for shoreline modifications that losing ice sheets and glaciers are anticipated to trigger. She cites key discoveries made about Antarctica’s Ross Ice Shelf by the interdisciplinary ROSETTA-Ice workforce as a mannequin first step. Persevering with research of ice dynamics will must be joined with work on oceans, altering land ranges and coastal dynamics to plan for future land use and infrastructure, she says.
Thursday Dec. 12, Four:00-Four:15, Moscone South 201-202, L2 C44A-01
Coupled Megadrought Danger in North and South America Nathan Steiger
Paleoclimate researchers have extensively documented prehistoric North American droughts dwarfing something seen in fashionable instances, however a lot much less is understood about previous droughts in South America, and whether or not they is likely to be linked to the north. Analyzing current information from tree rings, lake sediments and different sources, Steiger has found that droughts certainly have hit each continents at roughly the identical time. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation seems to be the dominant affect most often. The discovering suggests a big threat of simultaneous crop failures in each areas.
Friday Dec. 13, 9:30-9:45am, Moscone West 201-L2 GC51A-07
First Discovery of an Ice-Shelf Estuary Alexandra Boghosian
Boghosian presents satellite tv for pc imagery revealing the existence of a seasonal estuary penetrating Greenland’s Petermann Ice Shelf—in all probability the primary time such a function has been recognized anyplace. The estuary—an obvious meltwater river inside the ice that’s penetrated by ocean tides sloshing out and in—seems to begin on the shelf’s grounding line, some 50 kilometers from the terminus. Boghosian suspects that it may destabilize the ice in a variety of methods; and, if such options seem in different ice cabinets, they may be destabilized. She and colleagues hope to go to in particular person within the close to future.
Friday Dec. 13, 10:50-11:05am, Moscone West2008-L2 C52B-03
Tsunami Potential Off North Carolina Will Fortin
Off North Carolina, geologists have lengthy eyed the stays of previous big submarine landslides off the steep continental slope. Many consider that if repeated now, such occasions may trigger tsunamis. The slides are regarded as triggered partially by the buildup of gases inside sediments. Fortin has analyzed pore-pressure information collected on a latest analysis cruise, and can provide the newest estimate of slide hazard across the Cape Concern and Currituck slides, which collectively cowl about 175 sq. kilometers. Massive actions there are thought to have occurred repeatedly during the last 30,00zero to 50,00zero years.
Friday Dec. 13, 8am-12:20pm, Moscone South Poster Corridor OS51C-1506
How A lot Warmth From World Warming Are the Continents Storing?
Pierre Gentine, Earth Institute school
Thus far, a lot of the warmth produced by world warming is believed to be going into the oceans; in any other case the environment can be dramatically hotter than it’s already. However what in regards to the land? Utilizing information from deep boreholes, Gentine exhibits that continents might actually be taking on and storing way more warmth than beforehand thought. This implies that scientists might have to regulate fashions that predict the long-term way forward for local weather change.
Friday Dec. 13, 8am-12:20pm, Moscone South Poster Corridor GC51J-1078
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Earth Institute facilities and associates represented right here:
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory seeks basic data in regards to the origin, evolution and way forward for the pure world. Its scientists research the planet from its deepest inside to the outer reaches of its environment, on each continent and in each ocean.
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies is a analysis heart that fashions and displays earth programs, to foretell atmospheric and local weather modifications.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society goals to reinforce society’s capacity to grasp, anticipate and handle the influence of seasonal local weather fluctuations, from water sources and public well being to agriculture and meals safety.
The Center for International Earth Science Information Network works on the intersection of the social, pure and knowledge sciences. It focuses on spatial information integration and interdisciplinary analysis associated to human interactions within the atmosphere.
The Center for Climate Systems Research enhances interdisciplinary earth and local weather analysis throughout Columbia and on the affiliated NASA Goddard Institute for House Research.
